Forum:2013 Atlantic hurricane season
Only June 01 2013 00:00:00 UTC until the Atlantic hurricane season starts... Future start Coming in slightly more than one month :D.--Isaac829 19:41, April 23, 2013 (UTC) Could be earlier than that Isaac as the Euro,cmc and Gfs are hinting and actually showing sub tropical storm Andrea near the Florida coast in a week.even though is not likely it could very well happen.Allanjeffs 14:58, April 26, 2013 (UTC) : Looks kinda interesting, if this happens, it would be the second straight year with pre-season activity, like 2007-2008. While I think it'll be a while until we see Andrea, it's not out of the question we could see pre-season activity. No invests thus far this year; the last two seasons had some pre-season invests, including one that almost developed in early February last year. Ryan1000 15:18, April 26, 2013 (UTC) ::: I spy with my little eye...a blob in the GOM. This might have a chance if it doesn't crash into Florida. Ryan1000 12:56, May 1, 2013 (UTC) ::: That it would crash it would I think after it cross Florida it may have a chance.Allanjeffs 16:42, May 1, 2013 (UTC) ::::: Meh, it's dead. Andrea will come later on. Ryan1000 18:12, May 2, 2013 (UTC) ::::: Actually Ryan right now after Crossing Florida it looks the best it ever have if wasn`t for the front coming we may actually get something.Allanjeffs 20:34, May 3, 2013 (UTC) ::::::: Yeah, because of the front, I don't see much from this. The weather pattern this year is odd, with record heat, rain, and even snow in May, but I really don't know what the hurricane season will have in this ENSO-neutral season. The jetstream is in an odd position in the central U.S, but I don't know what this will mean for U.S. landfalls or impacts as 2013 progresses. 2005 was also ENSO-neutral, but that year had perfect conditions year round; it just didn't stop. I doubt 2013 will be like 2005, but it's not impossible. Ryan1000 15:54, May 4, 2013 (UTC) ::::::: The Atlantic hurricane season has begun! AndrewTalk To Me 00:09, June 1, 2013 (UTC) ::::::: 5and a half ours for me for the season to start.Allanjeffs 00:32, June 1, 2013 (UTC) Betting pools Atlantic and East Pacific. We have some new sections this year, and a modification for the pressure section for ranges of pressures instead of specific numbers. Also, the Hall of Fame is open, in case anyone wants to put their thoughts there. Ryan1000 22:15, September 27, 2012 (UTC) August 96L.INVEST AOI: Over Africa Following the other AOI, another AOI has formed over Africa. It currently has a 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next five days. If this AOI and the other AOI that recently exited Africa both develop, it could be a Danielle/Earl or Floyd/Gert 2.0 story. AndrewTalk To Me 02:34, August 28, 2013 (UTC) As this tropical wave moves closer to the Atlantic in a west-northwestward direction at 10 to 15 mph, conditions should get more favorable for the AOI. Its chances of formation in the next five days are now at 30%. AndrewTalk To Me 12:15, August 28, 2013 (UTC) Unfortunately, once this AOI reaches the Atlantic, the conditions it will suffer will not be as conductive as previously anticipated. Thus, its chances of formation for the next five days have been downgraded to 20%. AndrewTalk To Me 17:56, August 28, 2013 (UTC) GABBY WILL NOT FORM?!? UGHHHH THIS IS PINKAMENA 18:42, August 28, 2013 (UTC) The AOI now has a spot on the TWO! Once it moves into the Atlantic, it could develop gradually before running into unfavorable conditions. The chances of it becoming tropical in the next 48 hours are now at 10% and for the next five days, 30%. AndrewTalk To Me 00:03, August 29, 2013 (UTC) : I think this will only be a weak TS at most, or it might not even develop at all. [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 02:26, August 29, 2013 (UTC) ::: The SAL is still keeping some of these waves from developing into named storms, but like I said before, the worst of the season is far from over. In fact, the heart of the season hasn't even come yet. Writing this season off is the last thing you want to do, especially with September and October still around the corner. Ryan1000 13:25, August 29, 2013 (UTC) ::::: Woah! Suddenly up to 30% for two days, and 40% for five. This could very well become Gabrielle. Forecast to move west over Cape Verde and then northwest over the open eastern Atlantic, out to sea. The global models (GFS and Euro) are pretty unenthusiastic with this but after this the GFS sees two more storms coming behind it and another one exploding in the GoM. It's kinda far out but the Atlantic is about to spring into gear. Ryan1000 17:45, August 29, 2013 (UTC) ::::: It might or it might not,the Majority of the models have predict a quiet August and now they are prediction a quiet September for the first week it might explode or it might stay the same with weak storms :( we never know.Allanjeffs 20:45, August 29, 2013 (UTC) ::::::I think we might see Gabrielle from this, and possibly even the season's first hurricane (if it does become a hurricane, then we are going to throw a party!). Gabrielle-to-be better become a hurricane, or else I will go mad and ditch the Atlantic forum for good. It's been a few weeks since the average date of the first hurricane, and we haven't even had one yet!!! I hope the Atlantic explodes or gets more active soon, so we can have a good number of storms to end the year with. But I hope there are no Katrinas or Sandys :P [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 23:35, August 29, 2013 (UTC) And I hope Humberto can be a hurricane too! THIS IS PINKAMENA 23:43, August 29, 2013 (UTC) 96L.INVEST Still 30/40 for the NHC's AOI values. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 20:54, August 29, 2013 (UTC) Wow, this AOI is taking off! As it moves into the North Atlantic, it should gradually develop. However, conditions will fall apart afterwards. Its chances of forming in the next two and five days are now at 40% and 50%, respectively. I hope this can be like another Danielle or Julia! AndrewTalk To Me 23:49, August 29, 2013 (UTC) 96.L INVEST Over Africa everyone :P everyone Gabrielle is coming so be prepare.Allanjeffs 01:37, August 30, 2013 (UTC) : Conditions don't favor a Julia-like storm, but it has the potential to develop into a hurricane at some point. If it wants to do that, it better get on with it. I'm definitely not falling for a bust of a season yet. Conditions are still ENSO-neutral and are still favorable for an explosion to occur, but the SAL has been holding up longer than the models predicted it would. That might mean fewer storms than the past 3 years but it won't mean a quiet season overall. I'm still calling for 17-8-5 as of now, the season is far from over. Ryan1000 23:57, August 29, 2013 (UTC) ::: Now it's officially 96L. Still at 40/50. Expect to become a tropical storm while moving northwest over the open Atlantic. Ryan1000 02:56, August 30, 2013 (UTC) ::: The most a cat 1 conditions are not favorable for a strong storm.The CSU have lower the their numbers :( sighs.Allanjeffs 03:18, August 30, 2013 (UTC) ::::What are they now, Allan? --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 13:09, August 30, 2013 (UTC) HEY GUYS! GABBY IS NOW AT A 40/60% CHANCE OF FORMATION! COME ON GABBY! THIS IS PINKAMENA 13:37, August 30, 2013 (UTC) : The CSU predicted 1 less hurricane and major hurricane in their August prediction than they did in their April prediction. But 18/8/3 is still quite a bit. Ryan1000 13:42, August 30, 2013 (UTC) ::: Update, now at 50% for 2/60% for 5. Ryan1000 01:34, August 31, 2013 (UTC) ::::: And back down to 40%. Sigh...It might not develop at all. Ryan1000 14:18, August 31, 2013 (UTC) ::::::: A sad story about this tropical wave, as noted in Dr. Master'slatest Wunderblog post, is it killed 55 people in the African Country of Mali due to heavy flooding, before it exited the African Coast. Ryan1000 16:41, August 31, 2013 (UTC) This is terrible!! :( RIP to those that died, I wish this didn't happen. THIS IS PINKAMENA 16:43, August 31, 2013 (UTC) The wave is not even tropical yet, and look what its done! :( Now I want it to just die. It needs to do no more carnage to any landmasses. AndrewTalk To Me 16:45, August 31, 2013 (UTC) : Some of the models even see this thing looping south after moving northwest, which means it could even reach the Caribbean in the long run if it manages to hold together. Btw, posted the link in my last post for those who haven't seen it. Pretty unfortunate for the folks in Mali. Hopefully they can get back up from that. Ryan1000 17:08, August 31, 2013 (UTC) I doubt this invest will develop anymore. It is entering an unfavorable environment and has gotten a little disorganized recently. Its chances of formation for the next two and five days are down to 30%. AndrewTalk To Me 17:49, August 31, 2013 (UTC) I don't think this will develop anymore, because it looks like it lost itself already and is entering unfavorable conditions. But still, 55 deaths from a single African tropical wave!? I've never seen that before! R.I.P to all the people that died. :( Now I hope that this wave can just die out already, because it has caused enough deaths and damage, and I don't want any more. [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 21:01, August 31, 2013 (UTC) Man, this invest is powering down! Despite some signs of ogranization, it is not poised to really develop anymore. Its chances of formation are now at 20% for both the next two and five days. AndrewTalk To Me 00:10, September 1, 2013 (UTC) You all might as well say your farewells to Invest 96L. It has just lost all of its shower and thunderstorm activity, and the enviornmental conditions are not supportive for any development at all. For the next 48 hours, its chances of tropical cyclogenesis are now at near 0%, and for the next 120 hours, the chances are now at 10%. AndrewTalk To Me 13:02, September 1, 2013 (UTC) Farewell, 96L. Unfortunately you didn't become a depression. [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 15:10, September 1, 2013 (UTC) 97L.INVEST AOI.Central Atlantic Tropical wave axis on the 45W meridian is 10/20 on the TWO. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 20:54, August 29, 2013 (UTC) YAWWWWWWWNNNN will this become gabby? Maybe. THIS IS PINKAMENA 23:13, August 29, 2013 (UTC) : Not forecast to develop as of now. If it does, it might not be until the Pacific. The Caribbean isn't as favorable as it otherwise should be. Ryan1000 23:59, August 29, 2013 (UTC) : No, I doubt this invest will become an Atlantic system. It is pretty much being sheared apart by wind shear, and from here on out, it does not really have a chance. AndrewTalk To Me 11:46, August 30, 2013 (UTC) ::: I agree, unless conditions improve in the Caribbean, this one is done for. But it might emerge in the EPac in a week's time and become Kiko. :D Ryan1000 19:42, August 30, 2013 (UTC) :::: Nah, if this emerges into the Pacific and develops it'll be Lorena. There is already a 90% invest in the Pacific that will probably be Kiko. But if there is some freak occurrence in that the invest becomes a big 90% bust, this wave might be Kiko (unless it forms in the Caribbean). Or it might not even develop at all. We're not sure what will happen to this wave (yet) :P [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 01:52, August 31, 2013 (UTC) :::::: NHC says conditions could improve in the Western Caribbean in 4 or 5 days. By then we could see a storm, but if it becomes Gabrielle (or Humberto, if 96L becomes Gabrielle first), it probrably won't be more than a tropical storm given the limited time it has to develop. And about the Pacific AOI, wow, I didn't expect that thing to the southwest of Juliette to blow up so fast. It's 11-E right now, but even so, if it does become Kiko, it'll be an epic fail, lasting for only a day or two as a tropical storm before dying out at sea. Ryan1000 14:18, August 31, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Storm? Nahh, Humberto has no choice but to become a major. Most models point that out, and he is one of the frontrunners of the season in my book. Just my opinion lol. No matter what they tell us, no matter what they do, no matter what they teach us, what we believe is true. THIS IS PINKAMENA 14:23, August 31, 2013 (UTC) : Eh, not quite Rara, what the models or NHC tell or show us will probably happen. The models don't see much with this one at all, even when it reaches the western Caribbean, it probrably won't get to be more than a TS. The folks over at the NHC have PhD's. We don't. They know what they're talking about, it's pretty hard for their forecasts to miss. There's always wishful thinking on something wanting to explode (and it might), but the guys at NHC usually know what they're talking about. Ryan1000 14:37, August 31, 2013 (UTC) Well this means I don't want this to form then. I would like a good quality Humberto. THIS IS PINKAMENA 15:09, August 31, 2013 (UTC) For me, no cat 1+ humberto = finished. I expect this storm name to have uppity standards. THIS IS PINKAMENA 15:12, August 31, 2013 (UTC) Liz, I kind of agree with you. The 'H' letter on this list is as cursed as the 'F' letter was until this year. Even though this invest is at near 0% for the next two days and 10% for the next five days, could improve in a few days time in the western Caribbean. And to expand on my first point, the 'H' names on this particular list are cursed. 1989's Hugo shredded the Lesser Antilles and South Carolina and peaked as the epic winning Category 5 storm. 1995's Humberto could not make up its mind in the middle of the Atlantic, but peaked as a Category 2 and got into a fight with Iris. 2001's Humberto surprised everyone by exploding into a Category 2 at a very high latitude. And then. 2007's Humberto swallowed a dozen shots of caffeine right off of Texas. Luckily, it was only a Category 1. Who knows what could have happened if it pulled an Ethel (1960)? Will the 'H's continue their streak this year? AndrewTalk To Me 16:43, August 31, 2013 (UTC) I, PHOTO FINISH, HAVE ARRIVED. I WILL SEE AN IMPECCABLE CATEGORY 2+ HUMBERTO OR ELSE I, PHOTO FINISH, WILL BE OUTRAGED. I, PHOTO FINISH, WILL TELL HOITY TOITY AND DEMOTE YOU AS OUR TOP HURRICANE MODEL!!!! (Surely Humberto won't like that! He's meant to be the frontrunner! One of the supermodels of the season!!) THIS IS PINKAMENA 16:48, August 31, 2013 (UTC) 97L.INVEST The NHC has now tagged this as 97L. It likely won't develop near the eastern Caribbean, but it's looking a bit better on the latest Sattelite Imagery. It won't become a TS (if it does), until it's in the Central/Western Caribbean. Ryan1000 16:58, August 31, 2013 (UTC) : Oh and, for further convenience, here's some of the laterst model predictions for 97L. Odds are against it, but it definitely could develop. Ryan1000 17:19, August 31, 2013 (UTC) : Base on the Airplane of the NHC that was checking near the wave upper level winds are not that unfavorable after all and it already has a close low so it just need convection and persistence,this might be Gabrielle or Humberto depending which one develop first but I believe both will develop.Allanjeffs 17:35, August 31, 2013 (UTC) : I think this wave might develop after all. NOAA data shows this invest has gotten better organized, and its chances for formation are now at 10% for the next two days and 20% for the next five days. AndrewTalk To Me 17:47, August 31, 2013 (UTC) : This might become something in the long run. I don't think this will develop during the next couple days, but it might be Gabrielle (or Humberto if the African wave develops) in about a week or so, once its in the western Caribbean. [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 21:05, August 31, 2013 (UTC) ::: I think this'll become Gabrielle. 96L has really been losing it's steam and is now down to 20%. This one is at 10%, but it's moving into an increasingly favorable environment, it wouldn't surprise me if it can get stronger than the models are anticipating. Ryan1000 00:39, September 1, 2013 (UTC) :::Well, Martinique must be having a pleasant morning! The elongated invest is closing in on them, and it has increased in organization. Despite somewhat unfavorable conditions for now, they will marginally increase over the next five days. It has a 20% chance of becoming tropical in the next 48 hours and a 30% chance in the next five days. The Lessers are having a nice little rain day right now! AndrewTalk To Me 13:06, September 1, 2013 (UTC) :::This will probably become Gabrielle in a few days. And the Lesser Antilles must be getting lots of rain from this thing right now. [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 15:13, September 1, 2013 (UTC) September Welcome to September in the Atlantic! I hope to see a mini explosion of activity this month. For the record, we are now the first Atlantic season since 2002 to pass this far into the year without a hurricane and the first La Niña season since 2001 to do so as well. For September, I predict 5''' tropical storms, '''4 hurricanes, 3''' major hurricanes, and an ACE of '''76. Individual storm predictions: Tropical Storm Gabrielle slams into Nicaragua, followed by a Category 3 Humberto making landfall over North Carolina as a major, and then a Category 1 Ingrid staying out over the Atlantic, as well as a failure Tropical Depression Ten, along with a Category 4 Jerry making landfall over the Bahamas and eastern Florida as a Category 1, and a Category 3 Karen hitting Louisiana as a tropical storm. AndrewTalk To Me 00:10, September 1, 2013 (UTC) : Eric's great adage is not to be forgotten (beware the first storm of September!!). Btw, 97L, if it develops, will count towards a first September storm. We'll keep both up for August for now, but if either of them develop it'll be part of September. Ryan1000 00:45, September 1, 2013 (UTC) Hey everyone! Here's what I'm thinking! For September, I'm going for 7 tropical storms, 5 hurricanes and 3 majors, with a total of 85 ACE. Here are my individual storm predictions! *TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE (TS, September 3rd-6th) Caribbean and Florida landfall (97L) *HURRICANE HUMBERTO (C4, September 7th-17th) Landfall in Caribbean and entire Eastern USA and Atlantic Canada. Makes it all to Sweden as tropical storm. Costliest of the season. *HURRICANE INGRID (C2, September 8th-14th) Landfall in New Orleans. *TROPICAL STORM JERRY (TS, September 9th-12th) No landfall. Hi, Erin's boyfriend. Jerrin. LOL. *HURRICANE KAREN (C4, September 11th-24th) Landfall in Atlantic Canada. Strongest of season. *HURRICANE LORENZO (C4, September 16th-25th) Shy, sweet storm that makes no landfall. *HURRICANE MELISSA (C3, September 20th-29th) UK landfall as tropical storm. Nestor, Olga, Pablo and Rebekah in October, late season shocker Sebastian in November. WHATCHA THANK BRUVVAZ THIS IS PINKAMENA 01:32, September 1, 2013 (UTC) Liz, nice prediction. I hope the U.S. gets a major hurricane landfall, not because I want to see impacts, but just to end our major hurricane drought here. The only thing I would reconsider is Humberto's Sweden landfall. It would have to pull a Faith (1966) to make it that far, and Melissa would have to be like Debbie (1961) to hit the British Isles. I have no idea how much New Orleans can take anymore from tropical systems, after Katrina and Isaac. Atlantic Canada has been nailed by Juan and Igor, and I do not know if they can cope with another megastorm heading their way. I love Lorenzo. Truthfully, all Category 4s should do that, like Karl (2004) Danielle (2010). Also, Ryan, I want to point out Eric's famous adage has not been doing so well since 2008. 2009, 2010, and 2011 all had pathetic weak storms to begin September (Erika, Gaston, and the unnumbered storm), and 2012's first storm, Michael, did not do much either. P.S. Where is Eric? AndrewTalk To Me 13:19, September 1, 2013 (UTC) For September, I'm thinking 6 tropical depressions, 5 tropical storms, 3 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane. Individual storm predictions: * Tropical Storm Gabrielle, (TS, September 3rd-7th), Central America (97L) * Hurricane Humberto, (C2, September 9th-14th), No landfall * Hurricane Ingrid, (C2, September 13th-19th), Caribbean and U.S. Gulf Coast * Tropical Storm Jerry, (TS, September 18th-20th), No landfall * Hurricane Karen, (C4, September 24th-October 2nd), Cape Verde, Bermuda, Newfoundland * Tropical Depression Twelve, (TD, September 28th-29th), Mexico In October I think we will see Lorenzo, Melissa, and Nestor, and in November the season will probably end with Olga. And I also wonder where Eric is... [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 15:26, September 1, 2013 (UTC) 97L is not going into CA its going to move north of it.Its already to north to Affect CA maybe Mexico I believe it will move between CA and Cuba and then into the US.Allanjeffs 15:53, September 1, 2013 (UTC) Yikes! Read the NHC Atlantic August summary: FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC BASIN IN AUGUST WAS BELOW AVERAGE...WITH ONLY TWO TROPICAL STORMS FORMING. BASED ON A 30-YEAR (1981-2010) CLIMATOLOGY...THREE OR FOUR NAMED STORMS FORM ON AVERAGE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN IN AUGUST...WITH ONE OR TWO BECOMING HURRICANES. IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY...WHICH MEASURES THE COMBINED STRENGTH AND DURATION OF TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES...TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE END OF AUGUST WAS ABOUT 70 PERCENT BELOW THE 1981-2010 AVERAGE. Goodness, that shows how pathetic our August was. Even 2002 and 2001 had better Augusts than this. AndrewTalk To Me 17:23, September 1, 2013 (UTC) Retirements at a glance We have enough storms in this season to start this section (four), but nothing is worth retiring so far. My predictions: Andrea - 1% - It affected a variety of regions, but it is not going. Barry - 0.5% - If Arlene (2011) was not retired for affecting the same regions as Barry did, it is not going as well. Chantal - 0.1% - One death does not cut it in this case. Dorian - 0.01% - Just for regenerating after everyone said it was done. Erin - 0.05% - There was some rain in the Cape Verdes, but if Fran (1984) was not retired for affecting Cape Verde, neither will Erin. Fernand - 0.8% -The flood threats from Fernand, along with eighteen fatalities, make Fernand the season's deadliest storm, but it is extremely doubtful it will go. AndrewTalk To Me 00:06, July 28, 2013 (UTC) ---- STO12's Predictions *ANDREA: 20% Caused some impact to Florida and the southeast, but not significant enough for a retirement. *BARRY: 15% Torrential rains in Central America, but not enough impact to sustain a retirement. *CHANTAL: 5% Caused very little impact to the windward islands, no retirement for Chantal. *DORIAN: 5% No impact to land as a tropical storm. It's remnants and regenerated tropical depression status did more. *ERIN: 0% No impact to land. *FERNAND ? Predictions for Fernand will be released once the storm has dissipated. [[User:STO12|'ST✪12']] 02:02, August 26, 2013 (UTC) :But what about its remnants? Wouldn't the remains of Dorian have a possibility to cause at least some impact/damage? Jeffrey1998 (talk) 04:16, July 28, 2013 (UTC) :::I agree, Dorian's remnants have a 10% chance of coming back. He still has a chance to do something. Ryan1000 10:43, July 28, 2013 (UTC) ::::You honestly think Dorian is going to regenerate? I don't and it's at 0% right now, so I was correct. Dorian was a fail to me, its remnants didn't do anything big. -.- [[User:STO12|'ST✪12']] 23:11, July 30, 2013 (UTC) ::::::I said that two days ago, when it had a chance of regenerating. But now, he's dead. Dorian never did jack sh!t. Ryan1000 03:23, July 31, 2013 (UTC) ---- Here's my predictions! *Andrea - 5% - Caused some impact to the southeast, but too little impact for retirement. *Barry - 1% - Affected Mexico, but it will not be retired. *Chantal - 0.1% - Caused very little impact. *Dorian - 0% - Fail, but surprised us by regenerating after everyone thought it was done. *Erin - -∞% - EPIC FAIL! *Fernand - 10% - I never expected it to be as bad as this. It killed 18 people. But still, since Mexico rarely retires names, I don't think it is going. [[User:Steven09876 |'''Steven09876]] ''T'' | ' 16:00, July 28, 2013 (UTC) RyanK is here: *Andrea - 2% - Not much different from Alberto '06. Caused some flooding, but nothing severe. *Barry - 2% - Just like Bret '05. Some damage, some deaths, but for Mexico, it's not enough. *Chantal - 1% - I was really hoping to see more from Chantal, but it fell flat on it's face in the open Caribbean...Still, tack a 1% on it for the death in the Dominican Republic. *Dorian - 0% - It tried, but failed. *Erin - 0% - What a disgrace. *Fernand - 8% - Worse than Barry, but still not retirement-worthy. That's all for now. 'Ryan1000' 16:19, July 28, 2013 (UTC) BONJOUR, CA VA? *Andrea = 5%. She did cause a bit of hype along the northeast but her impacts were not life-threatening, just too petty. *Barry = 1%. That name did give me the creeps when I first saw it on the list but he is nothing more than a candidate for 2019's hurricane list. *Chantal = 0%. That was absolutely dreadful. *Dorian = -∞%. '''What the bloody hell was that? ' *Erin = -∞%. Just vomited. *Fernand= 5%. I just ate my free Nando's. Raraahahahromaromamagagaoohlala, want your pinkie pie! I thought I had done my already anyways. Andrea:3% believe it or not she has been one of the most interesting so far but anyways just left some rains and three deaths. Retirement is out of the question. Barry:2% Knowing Mexico for sure will not recommend this fail for retirement.They don`t even retire big hurricanes like Karl then this one is going to stay,I am pretty sure no ones remember a TS Barry in Mexico. Chantal :1% Another system that sucumbs to the trade winds in the Ecab.Fail Dorian: 1% and the parade of fail continues that 1% is just because he regenerate when the majority didn`t thought he will. Erin:1%Did I really need to comment? It affect the Cape verde but if Fran in 1984 which I believe has been the most damaging and deadliest storm there which caused at least 32 deaths wasn`t retire then this one for sure will not for just rain.Allanjeffs 21:56, August 18, 2013 (UTC) We don't have anything that stands a chance of retirement so far, but I'll put mine in anyway: *Andrea: 4% - Caused some hype along the US East Coast, but the impacts weren't all that much. Basically what Liz said. *Barry: 2% - It killed 3 people, but considering the fact that those deaths were in the ever-conservative Mexico, retirement isn't happening. *Chantal: 1% - 1 death in the Dominican Republic, and it was very blustery in Saint Lucia. Blown to pieces before it could do much else. *Dorian: 0% - It impressed us by regenerating after being dead for a week, but it had no impacts on land, so no. *Erin: 0% - A bit of rain in Cape Verde, and zilch after that. *Fernand: 10% - Barry Plus. I did not expect as many as 13 people to die from this thing (the 5 in Honduras were from the precursor wave, so I'm not sure if they count), but if Arlene '11 didn't go, then neither will Fernand. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 01:21, August 19, 2013 (UTC) Btw I discover that the Cape verdes are not a member in the group that represents the Atlantic basin that is why maybe Fran was not retire.I imagine that even if a storm affects Africa it will not be retire as they are not members of the same region.Allanjeffs 18:34, August 24, 2013 (UTC) Very interesting, Allan. This would also explain why Beryl '82 and Delta '05 were not retired. They both affected the Cape Verdes/Canaries to a considerable extent, too. (I don't care if Delta was a Greek letter name, it should have been retired!) AndrewTalk To Me 19:11, August 24, 2013 (UTC) : Well, maybe in the future if a hurricane causes enough damage somehwere in Africa or in southern Europe (1842 Spain Hurricane), maybe the WMO could consider those countries for the North Atlantic group in the future. Andrew, as far as I know, the WMO discussed the naming lists in detail after 2005. Had the unnamed Azores subtropical storm been discovered operationally everything would've been pushed back 1 name, Wilma would've been Alpha, and we would've ended at Eta. The WMO said if a greek-named hurricane causes enough damage to warrant retirement, the name will be retired, but instead of being replaced with any particular name, the next time a hurricane season reaches the greek alphabet, the retired greek name will be skipped and the next one will be used instead (I.E. Alpha, Beta, Gamma, if Beta becomes retired). No greek names in 2005 were retired, though Beta could've gotten a lot stronger if it remained offshore Nicaragua longer. I doubt we'll see any hurricane season in the near future that will go as far down the list as 2005 did, but with the way this active cycle has gone, anything is possible. Ryan1000 02:34, August 25, 2013 (UTC) : Gamma shouldn`t have been retire because damaga was not enough and if one of them should had been retire would have been 2005 as it was the deadliest of all the Greek letters.Allanjeffs 05:04, August 26, 2013 (UTC) ::You mean Gamma? And look at this and tell me damage wasn't severe. 19 people died and Delta wrought $364 million in damage. Considering all the destruction was on the Canary Islands, that's pretty bad. I'm not sure if it would've been retired if the Canary Islands were part of the WMO group that represents the Atlantic basin, but still. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 13:36, August 26, 2013 (UTC) ::::I'm don't think Spain is part of the WMO's list of countries in the North Atlantic, but if it is, or was, they sure would've retired Delta if they had the chance. The only disasters the Canary Islands see that are worse than rare storms like Delta are eruptions from the volcanoes on the islands (uncommon) or massive earthquakes/tsunamis from the Azores-Gibraltar Transform Fault that caused the great Lisbon Earthquake of 1755 (extremely rare). But 19 deaths and 364 million in damage are definitely retirement-worthy numbers, especially for them. Ryan1000 15:23, August 26, 2013 (UTC) ::::Thanks Dylan yes it was Gamma,and Spain is not part of the region only NAmer Central America and the Caribbean islands too.I believe Colombia may be but not remember I will ask my friend to give me the page again of the members,But the WMO can still ask for retirement if the country doesn`t ask that is the rule.I am not sure why they never ask for Gordon or Hanna though.Allanjeffs 21:18, August 27, 2013 (UTC) ::::Gordon was not retired because Haiti, for some unknown (and possibly unexcusable) reason, did not send a delegate to the WMO retirement conference. I assume Hanna stayed for the same reason. AndrewTalk To Me 21:26, August 27, 2013 (UTC) ::::In 1994 Haiti was suffering a civil war one of the worst of the country I imagine that is the prime reason as no one was interested in that kind of things in a period like that,Not sure with Hanna,and like I say if the country delegate don`t ask for retirement member of the WMO might.Allanjeffs 21:41, August 27, 2013 (UTC) Well, even if Spain isn't part of the list of countries in the WMO, I bet that they could nominate a name if they so wished to. But the main areas are North America, Central America, the Caribbean, or, in the case of Fabian, Bermuda. If a big hurricane hits Spain/Portugal in the future I bet they could nominate it, but it's highly unlikely and they're in a pretty tight economic situation anyways. Asking for a hurricane name to be retired isn't likely something they would ask for. Ryan1000 22:25, August 27, 2013 (UTC) Mid-season predictions This is the time of the season when CSU and NOAA issue their mid-season forecasts for the remainder of the season. To concide with their recent predictions, I will release my personal mid-season predictions in this section. If anyone else would like to have a say in the activity for the rest of this Atlantic hurricane season, please feel free to post it here. For the remainder of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, I predict: 16 named storms (Pablo), 7''' hurricanes, '''3 major hurricanes, and an ACE of 155. The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season has had a very weak start. Although we have had four tropical storms, none of them have been strong or destructive. My previous prediction called for 21 named storms, 13 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricane. However, this forecast assumed June and July would be hectic. In reality, these two months were pathetic. A good analouge for this season, in my opinion, would be 2003, 2007, or 2010. All three of these seasons had sluggish June-Augusts, but then imploded in September. 2013 is poised to do the same. Also, I think we could see a re-Isabel or re-Ivan this season. In addition, it should be noted both 2003 and 2007 had a power outage of strong storms. 2007 had plenty of storms (fifteen), but only one storm (Dean) lasted longer than a week. 2003 had three impressive major hurricanes (Fabian, Isabel, and Kate), but was otherwise a dud season, minus Juan. I think 2013 will also be devoid of many strong system. This is why my forecast calls for a truckload of storms, but a disproportionate amount of hurricanes. AndrewTalk To Me 16:18, August 7, 2013 (UTC) Andrew 2013 has been extremely active.It already has 4 name storms.2010 have Danielle until August 21 so give it a chance.I believe we are going to get between 16 to 17 names storms 8 to 9 hurricanes and 4 to 5 majors.Allanjeffs 19:16, August 7, 2013 (UTC) : I think we'll get a very active season this year; my predictions in my blog could actually be lackluster, I wouldn't be surprised if we get an explosion of activity in late August and September and possibly even run the table this year. I'm predicting a total of 18-21 named storms, 7-11 hurricanes, and 3-6 majors. The heart of the season is still yet to come. Don't lose hope for this year just yet. Ryan1000 19:20, August 7, 2013 (UTC) ::I'll throw my hat in the ring and predict 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 01:00, August 23, 2013 (UTC) :::I'm thinking 11 named storms, 3 (or 4) hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane. This is looking like a near-average to inactive season. [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 02:29, August 29, 2013 (UTC) :::Steven, I think you are seriously underestimating the potential future activity for this season. The only reason we have not gone bonkers like 2005 or 2008 yet is because the SAL is keeping all these tropical waves in check. However, today, the SAL will depart the Atlantic for good, and from here on out, we could see a mega-explosion in activity. 1967, 1977, 1984, 1988, and 2001 had no hurricanes yet by this time in the season, yet all of them ended with at least five (1967 had six and 2001 had nine). 1961 had a record-dead August, but once September came, the Atlantic went nuts with five tropical storms, four of which (Betsy-Esther) ultimately became major hurricanes, and then had two major hurricanes form in October (Frances and Hattie). 1964 also went crazy after August (five major hurricanes formed after September 1!!!). The truth is, we actually have a long way to go, and now is not the time to write off the season. I now think 16 tropical storms, 8''' hurricanes, and '''4 major hurricanes will be our final tally. AndrewTalk To Me 02:52, August 29, 2013 (UTC) ::::Alright, I'm now thinking 14 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. Looks like the Atlantic might explode in September after all. But still, this season will be nowhere near the activity of 2010, 2011, and 2012. [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 03:13, August 29, 2013 (UTC) ::::::Yeah, this season isn't over yet. The Saharan Air Layer is starting to die down and the MJO will peak over the next two weeks. SST's are still above-normal for the Atlantic, and conditions are ripe for an explosion of activity to occur from here until say, late October. The two AOIs (one in the Central Atlantic, the other over Africa) have unfavorable conditions for now, but they could move into more favorable conditions later on. The Atlantic is far from dead; if you ask me it's just sleeping for now. But when it wakes up, it'll take off. Ryan1000 13:33, August 29, 2013 (UTC) Post-Season Changes This could've begun a little sooner, but Andrea's TCR was released on the 22nd, 8 days ago. Not much has changed, winds are still 65 mph (55 knots), and it caused around 25 million in insured losses and 1 direct death in NC, 3 indirect ones from traffic accidents. Anyone have opinions on what will happen post-season? I think there might have been a storm in the Atlantic in June earlier from what was 92L on June 6, if not a storm a brief depression. Ryan1000 19:40, August 30, 2013 (UTC) I could see a slight change in damages for Barry, and a slight intensity upgrade for Fernand and Dorian's second life. And I doubt Invest 92L will be classified. I do not know whether or not it had a closed circulation. AndrewTalk To Me 13:23, September 1, 2013 (UTC)